Thứ Hai, 20 tháng 6, 2011

Tài liệu quan hệ Mỹ-Trung-ASEAN-Viet//Expect bullying from China over Spratlys - Miriam



By Christina Mendez (The Philippine Star) 
May 30, 2011

MANILA, Philippines -  China will always try to bully the Philippines and other countries in the Southeast Asian region in a bid to control massive oil resources in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago said yesterday.
While the Philippines obviously does not have enough defense capability against a superpower such as China, Santiago advised the government to be circumspect and be extra wise in dealing with its big neighbor.
“In the complicated world of international affairs, it is easy to say that we will fight them off. But it is likely that China will win because they are bigger than us. China, in effect, is really going to try and bully us and the rest of the other SEA countries,” said Santiago, former chair of the Senate committee on foreign relations.
The Spratly Islands is being disputed by China, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and Vietnam.
Among the six claimant countries, Santiago said China is the “biggest” in terms of land and population, and the “strongest” in terms of defense capability.
“We pale in comparison against China, even in terms of economy. We cannot rely on other countries to defend our claims against China, they are also afraid because they also have interests to protect. That’s the rule in international relations…really self interest,” Santiago told radio dzBB.
Santiago also warned the Aquino administration against entering into joint agreements in the exploration of oil and natural deposits in a bid to “settle” the disputes at the Spratlys.
Santiago said this would mean China would have the edge since the Philippines does not have the capability to conduct oil explorations because it lacks resources and equipment.
While the United States is an ally, Santiago said the Philippines couldn’t rely on the US because they too have their own economic reasons to protect in terms of their relationship with China. She said the US also has loans with China.
Despite this, Santiago said the US as well as the rich countries in western Europe would not allow China to have leverage in terms of oil and natural gas development in the Spratlys. “America and the countries in western Europe will not allow it because there will be imbalance in the distribution of power in the world once China is able to take over oil and mineral resources underneath the South China Sea,” she said.
China will become a big superpower if they gain control over the oil deposits and exploration in the region which, Santiago said, the US and western Europe will not allow.
Santiago, however, suggested the Philippines could be tapped by countries unfriendly to China and use its soil, especially Mindanao, to observe how China is conducting its trade.
Only then can the government try and make a more viable option for a better deal with China, the senator added.
Santiago also warned of a possible scenario similar to the Cuban missile crisis during the time of the late US President John Kennedy when there were trade embargoes imposed between China and the US.
“It will almost be a repeat of the Cuban crisis during the term of President Kennedy,” she said.
Judging by the military’s lack of equipment and resources to fight off China’s “bullying” tactics in the Spratly Islands, Santiago lamented that the Philippines cannot even detect if China has entered Philippine airspace because the military does not have the capability to do so.
“We are just too far away in terms of military resource capability. We are defenseless. Right now, our defense capability is good only for five minutes or under five minutes. After that …we are all dead,” she said.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=691241&publicationSubCategoryId=63

China hits back at Vietnam over territorial spat

AFP May 30, 2011

BEIJING (AFP) - China has hit back at claims it violated Vietnam's marine sovereignty in a new spat over disputed areas of the South China Sea, accusing Hanoi of harming Beijing's interests in the region.
Vietnam's state media quoted the foreign ministry on Friday as saying Chinese marine surveillance vessels had damaged a ship operated by the state oil and gas firm PetroVietnam, within what it described as its exclusive economic zone.
China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu responded late Saturday that Vietnam had been carrying out oil and gas operations in territorial waters under Beijing's own jurisdiction.
This "harms China's rights, interests and jurisdiction in the South China Sea and violates the consensus reached by the two countries on the South China Sea issue. China opposes this," Jiang said.
"The actions taken by Chinese authorities are normal marine law enforcement and surveillance activities undertaken in territorial waters under China's jurisdiction."
It was unclear whether the Chinese statement related specifically to the latest incident or more generally to Vietnam's activities in the disputed waters.
The Vietnam News Agency report said the Chinese vessels had approached the PetroVietnam ship and cut its exploration cables.
A complaint to the Chinese embassy in Hanoi said the incident "seriously violated Vietnam's sovereignty" and a 1982 United Nations convention on the law of the sea.
Hanoi stood firm on Sunday, with foreign ministry spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga saying Vietnam rejected China's reaction to the spat, insisting that Beijing had "gone against the knowledge of leaders of both countries".
"China is now causing a misunderstanding with the intention of making an undisputed zone into a zone in dispute," she told reporters, also calling for compensation from China for the damage caused.
Beijing and Hanoi have a long-standing dispute in the South China Sea over the sovereignty of the Paracel archipelago and the more southerly Spratlys, both potentially resource-rich outcrops that straddle strategic shipping lanes.
The area where the latest incident allegedly occurred is between the two island chains.
China's increasingly assertive role in the South China Sea has raised tensions with other countries in the region as well as the United States.
The Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also claim all or part of the Spratlys.

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/9539597/china-hits-back-at-vietnam-over-territorial-spat/

China has made great strategic advantages in Spratly Island



2011-05-29 (China Military News cited from theboholstandard.com) -- China has long been occupying known and undisputed Philippine territories in the Spratly's group of islands. It is not just building makeshifts for fishermen but high-tech edifice equipped even with anti-aircraft weapons and gadgets.
Of course the Philippine government has long been aware of China's invasion into our islands but somehow our officials tried to play deaf and blind about it knowing they are helpless against a giant bully stealing our land and maritime space.
The previous administration was even flirting with China wherein former Pres. Gloria Arroyo had paid several visits to the awakened giant in the guise of diplomatic amity but in truth she was actually strengthening the military ties between the two nations. Later, it was reported that the Philippines was receiving donations from China for its weak armed forces.
Came Pres. Noynoy Aquino and the same issue is again raised. Like his predecessors, Aquino employs friendly gestures despite the fact that China's intrusion into our territories is becoming more menacing. It seems that Aquino's statements calling for amiable talks in the face of such blatant invasion are indirect admission of the country's helplessness in stopping China's gradual takeover.
How dangerous is this invasion by China into our territories that we "the sovereign" Filipino people should haul violent protests in the international court? To better understand the precariousness of the situation at the Spratly's group of islands, it is perhaps fitting to quote in toto vivid reports by DJ Sta. Ana of News5 as republished by The Philippine Star last May 24, 2011.
"Documents show that of the seven Chinese-occupied islands, six are located well within the Kalayaan Island Group. The military garrisons and outposts were located at Kagitingan (Fiery Cross) Reef, Calderon (Cuarteron) Reef, Gaven Reef, Zamora (Subi) Reef, Chigua (Dong Men Jiao) Reef and Panganiban reef, better known as Mischief Reef."
"At Kagitingan Reef, China built a permanent communications and maritime observatory garrison that can house 200 troops. China built a helicopter landing pad, a 300-meter long wharf allowing supply ships and patrol boats to dock, a two-storey barracks and a 500-square meter plantation area. Beijing designated the Kagitingan Reef as its main command headquarters as it is equipped with satellite data transmission, surface and air search radars. This garrison is armed with at least four high-powered naval guns and several gun emplacements."
"China built permanent reef fortresses and supply platforms at the Calderon, Gaven and Chigua reefs. These supply platforms can resist winds up to 71 knots and are equipped with VHF / UHF communications equipment, search radars as well as naval guns and anti-aircraft guns. These three supply platforms can also serve as docks for Chinese navy patrol boats."

http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-has-made-great-strategic-advantages-in-spratly-island.html

US calls for restraint among Spratly claimants


2011-05-26 (China Military News cited from Philippine Star) -- The United States yesterday called on countries with territorial claims in the South China Sea to exercise restraint and resolve their disputes through negotiations.
"We call on all sides to exercise restraint. We believe in peace. This is for navigation. We think that all sides should sit down. All claimants sit down at the negotiating table," US Ambassador Harry Thomas Jr. said over radio dzRH.
He said any negotiations should be based on the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) signed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China.
"The DOC established in 2002 should be the basis for negotiation and it should be done through peaceful means," he added.
"Our policy has been consistent as articulated by President Obama and (State) Secretary Clinton and that is we call on all sides to exercise restraint," Thomas said on the sidelines of the farewell party for outgoing US embassy media officers.
"We do not take sides in this issue," he stressed.
"The United States shares great trade with China, We have a larger trade with ASEAN. But we need to trade with them both…. Trade with the United States and China in a peaceful manner," Thomas said.
Thomas lauded the diplomatic position taken by the Aquino administration but made it clear Washington is in no way influencing Philippine foreign policy.
"We have great respect for President Aquino and (DFA) Secretary (Albert) del Rosario's foreign policy and objective – but that is for them to make their foreign policy – not us," he stressed.
"The only thing I can say is we hope that all countries will sit down at the table because there are crosscutting claims and those claims need to be discussed and negotiated on the table," he said.
Thomas gave no comment on military garrisons and outposts China built in six areas well within the Kalayaan Island Group, which is claimed by Manila as Philippine territory. Photos of the Chinese structures appeared on News5 and in The STAR.

http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/us-calls-for-restraint-among-spratly-claimants.html

Chinese Whispers: Core Interests and the South China Sea


2011-04-28 (China Military Article cited from currentintelligence.net and written by Kit Dawnay) -- IN MID-2010, the newspapers were full of revelations that China had expanded its core interests to include the South China Sea. China's statement is said to have first emerged in a March 2010 meeting between US National Security Council Director Jeffrey Bader, Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and Chinese officials. Now, though, research indicates that it may never have happened.
This revelation suggests that US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton may have been mistaken - or even deliberately stoking tensions - when she said that Dai Binguo, China's Senior State Counsellor for Foreign Relations, had also described the South China Sea as a core interest in May 2010.  It is not clear how or why this misunderstanding arose.  Perhaps the phrasing was unclear, perhaps China did make the statement and now wants to back down in the face of US reassertion, or perhaps the US deliberately misinterpreted the comments in order to regain influence in the region.
Tensions in the Sea rose after Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam filed papers with the United Nations Commission on the Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), in compliance with a May 2009 deadline to formalise their legal claims and prompting an angry response from China.  The militarisation of the sea continues.  China has established a significant submarine base in Yilun in Hainan, to add to its naval bases in Guangdong province, and is now showing off its nearly finished aircraft carrier.   The US maintains an active presence through its Seventh Fleet, Vietnam and Malaysia are buying submarines, and the Philippines, the weakest power by far, is receiving US support for its navy and coast guard.
The relationship that seems to define the dispute, though, is that between Vietnam and China.  It is a paradoxical connection, framed in large part by Vietnam's much smaller size.  Indeed, Vietnam's Red River region was the province of Annam (the Peaceful South) in the Chinese empire from 111 BC until 939 AD, when Ngo Quyen founded the country's first independent dynasty.   This (and later) history is commonly cited as reason enough for hostility, but the truth is not so simple.  Chinese rule had a profound impact on Vietnam.  The country instituted a governing bureaucracy, selection for which was by examination.  Its scholar elite had a profound reverence for Chinese poetry, and used Chinese characters until the French reforms of the early twentieth century introduced the Roman script.  Vietnam's society was and remains deeply Confucian, with traditional hierarchies emphasised by the use of family words in lieu of pronouns.  Indeed, it could be said that Vietnam is more Confucian than mainland China, since its revolution was less destructive of its traditions than was Mao's Cultural Revolution.
And yet the Vietnamese are acutely conscious of their differences from China.  The impact of Chinese thought on Vietnamese international relations is instructive in this context.  For all of its history, Vietnam has operated as a small entity within China's regional sphere of influence, which revolved around Chinese emperors demanding tribute from smaller neighbours.  This system actually involved a good degree of autonomy – indeed, some historians argue that the benefit devolved largely on those states sending tribute, since they tended to do better in the trading relationship.   Yet realpolitik also played a role, with China continually seeking to balance regional powers, such as Vietnam, Thailand or the Khmer kingdom, against one another.  Within this context, Vietnam, conscious of its neighbour's great size, generally sought to maintain good relations with China, even as it worked to subvert the system to its advantage - for instance by establishing its own tributary system and winning territory from the weakening Khmer kingdom in the eighteenth century.


http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/chinese-whispers-core-interests-and-the-south-china-sea.html

How China, US See Each Other at Sea?


2011-05-29 (China Military News cited from the-diplomat.com and written by Patrick Cronin) -- Maritime security, especially in the East and South China Sea, remains high on the agenda of China, the United States, Japan and other regional actors.  Incidents over the past two years have strained relations and then prompted official and unofficial dialogues, including a two-day conference of experts hosted by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences in association with the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. The debate emanating from here in Shanghai at once showed the value of dialogue, but also its limitations.
While Chinese and US officials attempt to build on the fragile edifice of maritime cooperation advanced earlier in May through high-level military and civilian talks, they might do well to reflect on the distinction between conflicts of national interest and conflicts based on insufficient understanding. As they know, dialogue won't necessarily improve the former, but it does help to alleviate the latter.
Indeed, Prof. Nan Li of the US Naval War College believes that dialogue can actually reduce trust when the differences are over national interests. This may be the case with respect to China explaining its active defence or anti-access and area denial strategy. For example, when someone as knowledgeable as retired Rear Adm. Yang Yi claims that it applies only to 'Taiwan battlefield' scenarios, US and foreign audiences are sceptical if not incredulous.
Dialogue may be similarly counterproductive when the United States attempts to explain the air-sea battle concept. Although the concept remains nebulous, describing Navy-Air Force concepts of operations in the event an adversary like Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz elicits fears of a larger containment policy for those in Beijing.  Also, because it was mentioned officially in the February 2010 Quadrennial Defence Review, many Chinese assume that air-sea battle is a real strategy, and not simply a concept.
Similarly, China and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). One major difference is over whether and which type of military activities are permitted within the 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of a nation. China's national interests and growing confidence lead to an expansive view of its EEZ and a narrow view of which military activities are permissible for a foreign nation to undertake within an EEZ.  Such activities must be peaceful, and Chinese nationalists don't consider intelligence gathering even by non-warships to be peaceful. The United States, on the other hand, not only contends that such information gathering is entirely within international law, but also that the United States has an obligation to periodically test the premise in order to maintain what it considers the global public good of freedom of the seas.
But the practical maritime situation remains dynamic, and not simply a matter of interpreting international law. For example, China may, according to one Chinese scholar, invest in new high-technology to thwart US intelligence gathering on Chinese submarines. Thus, the incident over the ocean surveillance ship, USNS Impeccable in March 2009, when a People's Liberation Army Navy frigate crossed its bow within 100 yards, may in future see the introduction of new Chinese technological means for denying the United States ability to monitor the opaque military operations of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) .

http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/how-china-us-see-each-other-at-sea.html

A Rising Chinese general Promotes War


2011-05-23 (China Military News cited from smh.com.au and written by John Garnaut) -- A RISING star of the People's Liberation Army has called for China to rediscover its "military culture", while challenging unnamed Communist Party leaders for betraying their revolutionary heritage.
General Liu Yuan displays sympathy for Osama bin Laden, says war is a natural extension of economics and politics and claims that "man cannot survive without killing".

Gen. Liu Yuan
Gen. Liu Yuan

His essay, written as a preface to a friend's book, says "history is written by blood and slaughter" and describes the nation-state as "a power machine made of violence". General Liu's public glorification of what he sees as an innate but previously suppressed Chinese military culture reveals an undercurrent that is driving the Communist Party's increasing assertiveness at home and abroad.
His essay emerges at an awkward time internationally, after Army Chief of Staff Chen Bingde last week travelled to Washington with reassurances about China's peaceful intentions.
Chinese President Hu Jintao promoted General Liu this year to be Political Commissar of the PLA's General Logistics Department, after making him a full general in 2009, and some expect he will receive a two-stage promotion into the Central Military Commission, the military's top leadership body.
General Liu is also an important leader among the dozens of "princelings" whose parents founded the People's Republic and are now claiming dominant positions in politics, business and rising through the military.
His father was Liu Shaoqi, who was Mao Zedong's anointed successor until Mao's Red Guards threw him in jail and left him to die.
General Liu was purged with his family during the Cultural Revolution and then left Beijing to begin his career as a grassroots official in the countryside in the early 1980s, in parallel with the current boss of Chongqing city, Bo Xilai, and China's likely next president, Xi Jinping.
"Military culture is the oldest and most important wisdom of humanity," writes General Liu, inverting a traditional Chinese formulation that military affairs are subordinate to civilian culture. "Without war, where would grand unity come from? Without force, how could fusion of the nation, the race, the culture, the south and the north be achieved?"

http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/a-rising-chinese-general-promotes-war.html




South China Sea disputes a threat to Asean-China relations


After 15 years of discreet and patient diplomacy over overlapping claims for the South China Sea, both Asean and China are showing signs of fatigue as there has been no progress yet towards a resolution or joint development schemes. Alleged intrusions and confrontations in the resource-rich maritime territory by various claimants have increased over the past two years.

The most serious incident occurred on March 2 when the Philippine oil exploration ship, MV Veritas Voyager, was harassed by Chinese Navy patrol boats at Reed Bank, near the Philippines. It topped the agenda when the visiting Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanlie visited the Philippines last week. The incident immediately brought back memories of March 1995, when the Philippines confronted China after the discovery of new structures in the Mischief Reefs, which subsequently led Asean to issue a joint statement, the first and the only one, expressing "serious concern" over Beijing's action.Over the years, there were high hopes that the Declaration of Conduct for Parties in the South China Sea in 2002 would not only encourage the claimants to restrain from any activity that would destabilise the whole region but help to resolve issues related the territorial sovereignty. Somehow the longstanding pledge for the promotion of trust-building measures and mutually beneficial cooperation have continued to be an elusive goal over the past nine years.
One stumbling block remains the wording of implementing guidelines of the 2002 document, which was agreed on when bilateral relations were at a zenith. The Asean claimants, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and China were still fighting over them when senior officials last met in Medan, Indonesia. Given the current tension and growing mutual suspicion, especially between China and Vietnam/Philippines, it is doubtful if they will be able to finalise the guidelines in time for next year's 10th commemoration in Phnom Penh, when Cambodia chairs the 20th Asean summit. Their collective assertiveness shows that the disputes in the South China Sea represent core national interests.
More than conflicting parties like to admit, the relatively benign environment which Asean and China used to enjoy tackling the South China Sea problem since Mischief Reef in 1995 effectively ended last July. The dispute got an international stamp when the US State Secretary Hilary Clinton raised the issue openly on the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea and expressed strong support for the Asean document. Furthermore, the US also offered to facilitate diplomatic efforts to find a resolution. From that moment, China and the Asean claimants knew full well that their disagreements have been thrown into the international spotlight — after they had been kept under wraps for the past 15 years.
China was quite happy to continue negotiating with Asean over the guidelines without intervention from other players. Back in 1994, when China was still a consultative partner of Asean, visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen told his Asean counterparts in Brunei Darusalam that Asian countries must solve their problems in an Oriental Way. Somehow this approach rings hollow and does not bode well in the current atmosphere. The lack of progress and the claimants' growing presence and visible physical structures has provided a raison d'etre for the Asean claimants, in particular Vietnam and the Philippines, to harden their pursuit of more tangible outcomes. To add fuel to the fire, last week, the two Asean countries agreed to work on a joint exploration project for oil and gas in the disputed areas.
Previously, the Asean claimants and China held bilateral negotiations trying to craft collaborative frameworks that would be acceptable to both sides — settling sovereignty issues with Asean claimants and overall cooperation with all Asean members. Unfortunately, some claimants viewed the exercise as a foot-dragging tactic to further strengthen presence in claimed islands or islets. At the moment, Vietnam occupies 23 islets while China and Malaysia occupy seven each. The Philippines has claimed the so-called Kalayaan Island group made up of 54 islands, reefs and shoals.
Last July in Hanoi, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was visibly upset when the South China Sea issue was brought up and discussed openly at the Asean Regional Forum. It was a radical departure from the modus operandi agreed at the Huangzhou meeting between China and Asean in April 1995, with both sides keeping the dispute under wraps. At this hill resort meeting, Asean for the first time jointly called on China to be more transparent about claims over the South China Sea including the significance of the nine-dot line. The lack of better answers and practice gradually pushed the Asean claimants to ditch bilateral frameworks. The fact that the dispute received wider international attention last year was also partly attributed to the Asean chair's diplomatic manoeuvrability.
One immediate consequence of this shift may be a less polite (bu ke qi in putonghua) attitude and policy by China towards Asean. It is currently in a reset mode. Beijing views Asean's positions over the guidelines as problematic and undermining its claims for sovereignty. With Asean members
juggling their positions between claimants and non-claimants as well as China's ambivalence to Asean as a whole, relations between the grouping and the regional power will be severely tested from now on.
Without a law-binding code of
conduct, it is hard to foresee long-
term peace and stability in the region's maritime territory. The whole scheme of things is further complicated by
the new strategic landscape with the rise of China and its navy fleet, as well as the US's proactive engagement in Asia. As such, it is not hard to envisage other non-claimant players or facilitators wanting to guarantee the safety of sea lanes for vital mercantile activities.
Finally, if the ongoing disputes are not properly handled, it will have huge spill-over effects on broader China-US rivalry in this region. The Philippines is a treaty ally of the US, as are Japan and South Korea, which also have overlapping claims on islands with China. For instance, a small incidental armed attack in the Kalayaan Island chain could easily turn ugly amid growing China-US rivalry. The Philippine government is confident that any attack on a Filipino ship in areas under its administration is a direct attack on the US, as stipulated in its defence treaty with the US.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/05/30/opinion/South-China-Sea-disputes-a-threat-to-Asean-China-r-30156526.html



Beijing is stoking tensions in South China Sea: Hanoi

Reuters, HANOI
Vietnam said yesterday China was increasing regional tensions and said its navy would do everything necessary to protect its territorial integrity after Chinese patrol boats interfered with a Vietnamese oil and gas survey ship in the South China Sea.
The remarks appeared to raise the stakes in the latest row over long-simmering conflicting maritime claims just days before a regional defense summit in Singapore and highlight nervousness about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
In a rare weekend news conference, Vietnamese officials rejected China’s claims that the Vietnamese ship conducting a seismic survey was in Chinese waters. The incident happened about 120km off the south-central coast of Vietnam and about 600km south of China’s Hainan Island.
“The Vietnamese navy will do everything necessary to firmly protect peace and the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Vietnam,” Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga said.
Do Van Hau, deputy chief executive of state oil and gas group Petrovietnam, which was operating the ship, said one of three Chinese patrol vessels on the scene intentionally cut a submerged cable towed by the ship, the Binh Minh 02. It was not the first time Chinese ships had cut cables of Vietnamese survey boats, he said.
The Chinese boats then threatened the Vietnamese ship with violence, he added without elaborating.
Taiwan, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all claim territories in the South China Sea, which cover an important shipping route and are thought to hold untapped oil and gas reserves.
China’s claim is by far the largest, forming a vast U-shape over most of the sea’s 1.7 million square kilometers, including the Spratly Islands (南沙群島) and Paracel Islands (西沙群島).
China blamed Vietnam on Saturday for the incident, saying such Vietnamese oil and gas operations undermined China’s interests and jurisdictional rights.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Jiang Yu (姜瑜) said the behaviour of “the relevant Chinese departments” in the incident was normal.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2011/05/30/2003504508




Vietnam Eyes China ‘Threat’

Chinese March 28, 2011 Southeast Asian nations may be struggling to get their act together over how to present a united front in response to China’s territorial claims, but this isn’t stopping some of them preparing for potential military eventualities.
Jane’s Information Group has compiled data for Vietnam that suggests the country is significantly boosting defence spending this year, in large part because of concerns about China.
As Jane’s noted last week, deciphering what exactly Vietnam’s budget numbers mean is no easy task—the government views defence spending as a state secret, and it’s unclear what exactly is included in the numbers that are actually released. Still, Jane’s notes: ‘In January 2011 Defence Minister Phung Quang Thanh told the 11th National Party Congress that Vietnam's defence budget would increase to VND52 trillion ($2.6 billion) in 2011. The allocated expenditure represents an increase of 70 percent over 2010 spending.’

One of the key concerns for countries like Vietnam are what appear to be China’s expansive claims to most of the South China Sea (with a little intimidation of Vietnamese fishing vessels thrown in for good measure).
Last March, there was speculation that China had explicitly referred to the South China Sea as a ‘core interest’ in the same way it sees Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. This view was given some additional weight after reporters were briefed following a closed-door meeting between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and influential Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo that Dai had described the South China Sea as ‘a core national interest.’
But according to China military analyst Michael Swaine, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this information has been misreported. He says:
‘As Beijing sought to limit US interference in territorial disputes in the South China Sea and as tensions rose with its neighbours during 2010, news surfaced that China was for the first time labelling the South China Sea a core interest on par with Taiwan and Tibet. This, however, is a misreading of the facts. Despite news reports to the contrary, China did not explicitly identify the South China Sea as a core interest.’
Still, despite the story making a splash around the world last summer as tensions in the region mounted, China appears to have done little to correct this misunderstanding—if indeed that is what it was. The consequence is some smaller neighbours believing they need to do a little muscle-flexing of their own.

http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/03/28/vietnam-eyes-china-threat/


Asean and China harden positions on SCS


Regional Perspective

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

After 15 years of discreet and patient diplomacy over the overlapping claims in South China Sea, both Asean and China have now showed signs of fatigue of the lack of progress towards a resolution as well as joint development schemes. Incidents of alledged intrusions and confrontations in the resource-rich maritime territories among various claimants have increased in the past two years.

But the most serious one occurred on March 2 when the Philippine oil exploration ship, MV Veritas Voyager, was harassed by the Chinese Navy patrol boats at Reed Bank. It topped the agenda when Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanlie visited the Philippines last week. The incident immediately harked back to the event in March 1995 when the Philippines confronted China after the discovery of new structures in the Mischief Reefs, which subsequently led Asean to issue a joint statement, the first and only one, expressing "serious concern" over Beijing’s action.

Over those years, there were high hopes that the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China in 2002 would not only encourage the claimants to restrain from any activity that would destabilize the whole region but help to resolve issues related to territorial sovereignty. Somehow the longstanding pledge for the promotion of trust-building measures and mutually beneficial cooperative continue to be an elusive aim in the past nine years.

One stumbling block remains the wordings of the implementing guidelines of the 2002 document, which was agreed upon when their bilateral relations were at the zenith. The Asean claimants, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and China still fight over them when their senior officials last met in Medan, Indonesia. Given the current tension and growing mutual suspicion, especially between China and Vietnam/Philippines, it is doubtful if they could finalize the guidelines in time for next year’s 10th commemoration in Phnom Penh, when Cambodia chairs the 20th Asean summit. Their collective assertiveness showed that the disputes in South China Sea represent their core national interests.

More than conflicting parties like to admit, the relatively benign environment which Asean and China used to enjoy tackling the South China Sea problem since the Mischief Reef in 1995 effectively ended last July. The dispute got an international stamp when the US State Secretary Hilary Clinton raised the issue openly on the freedom and safety of navigation in South China Sea and expressed a strong support for the Asean document. Furthermore, the US also offered to facilitate diplomatic efforts to find a resolution. From that moment on, China and the Asean claimants knew full well that the conflicts have been thrown open into an international arena—something they kept under wraps for the past 15 years.

China was quite happy to continue negotiations with Asean over the guidelines without intervention from other players. Back in 1994, when China was still a consultative partner of Asean, visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen told Asean counterparts in Brunei Darusalam that Asian countries must solve their problems in an Oriental Way.  Somehow this approach rings hollow and does not bode well with the current atmosphere. The lack of progress coupling with growing claimants’ presence and visible physical structures has provided the raison d’tre for the Asean claimants, in particular Vietnam and now the Philippines, to harden their pursuits for more tangible outcomes. To add fuel to the fire, last week, the two Asean countries agreed to work on a joint exploration oil and gas project in the disputed areas.

Previously, Asean claimants and China held bilateral negotiations trying to craft collaborative frameworks that would be acceptable to both sides—settling sovereignty issue with Asean claimants and overall cooperation with all Asean members. Unfortunately, some claimants viewed the exercise as a foot-dragging tactic to further strengthen presence in claimed islands or islets. At the moment, Vietnam occupies 23 islets while China and Malaysia occupy seven each. The Philippines has claimed the so-called Kalayaan island Group made up of 54 islands, reefs and shoals.

Last July in Hanoi, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was visibly upset when the South China Sea issue was brought and discussed openly at the Asean Regional Forum. It was a radical departure from the modus operandi agreed at the Huangzhou meeting between China and Asean in April 1995, both sides successfully kept the dispute within their turf. At this hill resort meeting, Asean for the first time jointly called on China to be more transparent about its claims over the South China Sea including the significance of the nine-dot line. The lack of better answers and practice gradually pushed the Asean claimant beyond the bilateral framework. The fact that the dispute last year received a wider international attention was also partly attributed to the Asean chair’s diplomatic maneuverability.

One immediate consequence of this shift would be the less-polite (bu ke qi in putonghua) aspect of China’s attitude and policy towards Asean. It is currently in a reset mode. Beijing views the Asean positions over the guidelines as problematic as undermining its sovereignty claims. With Asean members juggling their positions between the claimants and non-claimants as well as China’s ambivalence on Asean as an individual and as an organization, the Asean-China relations will be under severe tests from now on.

Without the law-binding code of conduct, it is hard to foresee long-term peace and stability in the region’s maritime territory. The whole scheme of things is further complicated by the new strategic landscape coupling with the rise of China and its blue navy fleets as well as the US’s proactive engagement in Asia. As such, it is not hard to envisage additional non-claimant players or facilitators that want to guarantee the safety of sea lanes for their vital mercantile activities.

Finally, if the ongoing disputes are not properly handled, it would have a huge spill-over effects on the broader China-US rivalry in this region. The Philippines is a treaty alliance of the US, not to mention other two in Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, with their overlapping claims of islands with China. For instance, a small incidental armed attack in the Kalayaan Island chains can easily turn ugly amid growing China-US rivalry.  The Philippine government is confident that any attack on a Filipino ship in the areas under its administration is a direct attack on the US as stipulated in the degence treaty with the US.

(The Nation/ANN)

http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=26553


Friday, May 27, 2011



VNEconomyNews.com - Vietnam and the Philippines are pushing forward oil and gas exploration projects in areas of the South China Sea claimed by China, sparking a fresh clash in one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors.

State-owned PetroVietnam’s partner Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) aims to begin drilling next year in a separate block that China awarded to a U.S. rival and has protected with gunboats. Ricky Carandang, a spokesman for President Benigno Aquino, said the Philippines plans to exploit a field in an area of the sea where Chinese patrol boats harassed a survey vessel in March.

The neighbors of China, which has Asia’s largest military, were emboldened after the U.S. asserted interest in the waters last year, said James A. Lyons Jr., a former U.S. Pacific Fleet commander. A surge in crude prices to near $100 a barrel also spurred Vietnam and the Philippines to pursue the oil needed to meet economic growth targets of at least 7 percent this year.

“With the economic situation in the Philippines and Vietnam, the exploration for oil and gas makes good economic sense,” said Lyons, who led the Pacific Fleet from 1985 to 1987 and is now president of Lion Associates LLC, a Warrenton, Virgina-based business advisory company. “They depend on the United States to provide the overarching security umbrella.”
Cut Cables

Vietnam protested to China over an incident yesterday in which it says three Chinese vessels cut the survey cables of a ship belonging to Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, more commonly known as PetroVietnam. The confrontation occurred inside lot 148, 120 nautical miles off the coast of Phu Yen province, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hanoi said in a faxed statement. Lot 148 is also claimed by China.

China asserts “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea, including oil and gas fields more than three times further from its coast than they are from Vietnam. Exploration in waters under China’s jurisdiction infringes its “sovereignty and interests and is illegal,” the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said May 12.

Maritime disputes may be discussed at an annual security forum in Singapore starting June 3 that will include a speech from Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie. At last year’s event, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. opposed efforts to “intimidate” companies operating in the sea.

The Philippines protested April 5 to the United Nations that a Chinese map laying out its claims had “no basis under international law.” Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei also have overlapping claims with China.
‘Legitimate Licenses’

Talisman, Canada’s third-largest oil company by market value, will start exploratory drilling about 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from China’s Hainan island, located off its southern coast, after a seismic program this year, according to a corporate presentation on its website this month. The Calgary- based company is partnered with Hanoi-based PetroVietnam.

“We have what we believe are legitimate licenses,” John Manzoni, Talisman’s chief executive officer, said in a May 4 interview. The company plans to push ahead “at a normal pace.”

Talisman’s blocks 133 and 134, about 300 kilometers from Vietnam, are known as WAB-21 in China -- which in 1992 awarded Crestone Energy Corp. the site, now owned by Houston-based Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (HNR)

China “did indicate it was very concerning to them and that they would intervene in some way,” Harvest CEO James Edmiston said in response to questions about Talisman’s license in an August interview.
Ordered to Leave

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) plans an exploratory well off Vietnam this year, Mark W. Albers, a senior vice president, said in a March 9 meeting with analysts. The Irving, Texas-based company is developing Block 119, state-run Vietnam News reported March 31, without saying where it got the information. Part of the site sits in waters claimed by China.

Details of exploration programs are confidential, Exxon Mobil spokesman Patrick McGinn said by e-mail.

Two Chinese patrol boats in March ordered a ship doing seismic work for Forum Energy Plc (FEP) to leave an area near disputed waters about 250 kilometers west of the Philippines’ island of Palawan, Philippines Army Lieutenant General Juancho Sabban said at the time. The Chinese left the area after two military aircraft were deployed, he said.

The contract area for Chertsey, U.K.-based Forum Energy lies in waters China, Vietnam and the Philippines agreed to explore jointly in an arrangement that lapsed in 2008. Majority owned by Manila-based Philex Mining Corp. (PX), Forum plans to drill wells there, it said in a March 15 statement.

The field the Philippines plans to exploit is a “very important” part of Aquino’s plan to cut oil imports, spokesman Carandang said by phone May 16.
‘Not Bullied’

American policy makers have put forward the U.S., which has defense treaties with the Philippines and Thailand and guarantees Taiwan’s security, as a counterbalance to China. More than half of the world’s merchant fleet by tonnage passes through the South China Sea each year, according to GlobalSecurity.org, a research group in Alexandria, Virginia.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared a “national interest in the freedom of navigation and unimpeded lawful commerce” in the waters at a regional meeting in Hanoi in October.

That statement gave Southeast Asian nations “a little more confidence,” said Michael Green, a former Asia specialist at the U.S. National Security Council who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It took somebody to say ‘we’re not going to be bullied.’”
China’s Shrinking Reserves

The U.S. navy has patrolled Asia-Pacific waters since World War II. China has bolstered its forces over the past decade, procuring nuclear-powered submarines and developing an aircraft carrier, according to a Defense Department report in August.

In a 1988 skirmish over the Spratly islands, China killed more than 70 Vietnamese troops and sank several ships, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 1994, Chinese warships were sent to stop Vietnamese drilling.

Chinese studies cited by the EIA suggest the waters sit atop more than 14 times BP Plc estimates of the country’s oil reserves and 10 times those for gas. China’s oil reserves have shrunk almost 40 percent since 2001 as the economy expanded 10.5 percent a year on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Vietnam’s domestic gas demand is set to triple by 2025, according to World Bank estimates. The Philippines plans to boost hydrocarbon reserves by 40 percent in the next two decades to reduce its almost total reliance on imports, according to a department of energy plan.
‘Tough Political Decision’

Going it alone may be a negotiating tactic, said Marshall Mays, director of Emerging Alpha in Hong Kong. China and its neighbors are likely “working on the assumption that a negotiated split of revenues” will be agreed, he said.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has made little progress in negotiating a binding code of conduct for the sea with China since 2002.

“By agreeing to a joint exploration you ipso facto recognize the legitimacy of the claims of the other countries,” said Ralf Emmers, a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “That’s a very tough political decision.” (Bloomberg)

http://www.vneconomynews.com/2011/05/south-china-sea-oil-rush-heightens.html

Vietnam beefs up military garrisons in Spratlys
 
By David Jude Sta Ana, News 5 (The Philippine Star) Updated May 26, 2011 12:00 AM MANILA, Philippines -  Like China, Vietnam has also built and gradually strengthened its military garrisons and outposts well within Philippine territory in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Documents and photographs obtained by News5 showed that, along with China, Vietnam has been very active in building up its fortifications on the islands and reefs it occupies.
The disputed islands cover 200,000 square miles and are made up of some 200 islands, reefs and shoals.
Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are claiming the Spratlys either in part or in whole.
The area is widely believed to have massive deposits of oil, gas, minerals and has prime, untapped fishing areas.
The Philippines is claiming only a portion of the Spratlys, known as the Kalayaan Island Group, which covers a 64,000-square mile area and is made up of 53 islands, reefs and shoals.
The Kalayaan Island Group is a municipality of Palawan and located within the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone.
Vietnam has occupied 23 territories in the Spratlys; China and Malaysia have seven each, the Philippines nine, and Taiwan only one.
Of the 23 Vietnamese occupied territories, seven are located in the Kalayaan Island Group. These are located in the Binago (or Namyit) Island, Sincowe East Island, Lagos (or Spratly) Island, Kalantiyaw (or Amboyna) Cay, Gitna (or Central) Reef and Hizon (or Pearson) Reef.
A Philippine government briefing paper said that “Vietnam is at the forefront of construction activities, having built the most number of additional structures at its occupied territories since 1998.”
The Vietnamese construction activities cover renovation, remodeling and addition of single story buildings in the seven areas.
The documents noted the increase in the number of solar panels and piers, “indicative of an increased activity in its territories.”
The documents also noted that Vietnam has been “the most active” in strengthening the defensive capabilities of its outposts.
Gun emplacements and gun shelters are located on Kalantiyaw Cay, Gitna Reef, Binago Island, Hizon Reef, Sincowe East and Pugad Cay.
It is widely believed that troops are stationed in the Vietnamese-held areas.
Documents also showed that Vietnam has built or is planning to build extended gun emplacements in Collins Reef, Paredes (or Great Discovery) Reef, Ladd Reef and Len Dao Reef.
It is also planning to rehabilitate an airstrip on Lagos (or Spratly) Island.
Apart from Vietnam, the Philippines is the other country known to maintain an airstrip in its territory. The document indicated that “China has not attempted” to build an airstrip in any of the territories it occupies.
The document also said Hanoi is using tourism to bolster its claim on the Spratlys. Since 2004, Vietnam has increased the number of ship travels to the area. In April 2004, Vietnam sent a boatload of tourists to Kalantiyaw (or Amboyna ) Cay as part of tourism promotions.
A Google search shows several Vietnamese websites that promote visits to the Spratlys, which features photos of the Vientamese held areas within the Kalayaan Island Group. – With Pia Lee-Brago


http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=689852&publicationSubCategoryId=63