Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd's recent National Press Club speech on
our foreign policy in the Middle East argued vigorously that Australian
interests weren't only regional but global. Rudd stressed the benefit
to Australia of pursuing an activist middle-power diplomacy in world
affairs.
This approach underpinned his energetic push to secure
international agreement on a no-fly zone in Libya's civil war. The Arab
League resolved to support intervention on March 12 and the UN Security
Council on March 17. Few people, however, have speculated publicly
about preparing for the Libyan endgame and a possible role for the UN in
a post-conflict situation.
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UN peacekeepers are only too familiar with the task of
helping clear up civil wars on the African continent. Since the Cold
War, peacekeepers have been on the ground in many countries, including
Angola, Rwanda, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mozambique and the
Central African Republic.
In these situations, UN missions have embraced three
types of assistance. First is promoting military stability by helping
negotiate a ceasefire, monitoring that ceasefire and the disengagement
of forces, supervising the decommissioning of weapons and excluding
mercenaries from the conflict zone.
Second is helping restore the social order by, for
example, protecting humanitarian assistance, training police and
helping rebuild or create social and economic institutions.
Third is supporting the holding of democratic elections,
often in countries in which this is a novelty. If the rebels in Libya
take over, they will be in need of such support, being probably less
prepared for government than the Timorese in 1999.
Many of these post-conflict roles are likely to be
relevant to the endgame in Libya. We don't know whether Muammar Gaddafi
will negotiate, whether he will disappear from the scene, whether the
civil war will lapse into stalemate or be rapidly resolved, or how
deeply involved the international community may become in the fighting.
But all wars end and the UN is likely to be called upon
to stabilise the situation after the fighting stops, or when Gaddafi
(or his successor) strikes a deal with the rebels.
There is no other choice. The Arab League lacks the
resources to do it alone and isn't exactly familiar with democratic
processes. It is also unlikely to want to become embroiled in potential
political and religious disputes within another Arab state by organising
a post-conflict stabilisation force.
NATO is divided, with Germany distinctly lukewarm about
the no-fly zone, while the more enthusiastic Britain and France may be
unwilling to commit already overstretched military forces. US President
Barack Obama will be especially wary of committing ground forces in
North Africa, if only for domestic political reasons. A Western-run
force wouldn't be a good look, anyway.
A UN force would have the added benefit of being able to
include substantial numbers of troops from Arab states, such as Egypt,
while providing international cover. Prospective UN involvement, if
seriously planned, could in fact contribute to ending the war. Both
sides may be more willing to negotiate if they know that UN blue helmets
will step in as a buffer. Many Libyans may prefer UN involvement to a
free-for-all at the end of hostilities.
Given UN involvement, it's likely to look to Australia
for a significant contribution. Last month's Press Club speech by Rudd
referred to this country's proud record in peacekeeping; participation
in 50 operations employing a total of 65,000 troops. He also expressed
Australia's interest in obtaining a seat on the Security Council in
2013-14. The speech seemed to be inviting the UN to ask for a
contribution to any peacekeeping mission that may be needed in Libya.
Within six months perhaps, Australian forces may return
to North Africa and the familiar ground of Tobruk and Benghazi, where
they distinguished themselves some 70-odd years ago.
Nguồn: http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/un-likely-to-look-to-australia-for-peacekeepers-20110328-1cdej.html
